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Author Topic: Latest supermarket rationing limits  (Read 9656 times)

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Offline richtea

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #30 on: March 19, 2020, 02:29:51 pm »
Quote from: Phmode on March 19, 2020, 01:21:12 pm
I see your 80 and raise you 33   8)

Fair cop - I agree it's 3.9%. Quite high.
My figures were a combi of one day's infection v the prev days deaths. Bad Taylor.
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Offline Phmode

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #31 on: March 19, 2020, 04:45:14 pm »
The figures are not accurate because we probably know of every death but there could be 10 times the number of infections.

The figures (yours and mine) are based on the group of positive tested folk and deaths therein.
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Offline Belco100

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #32 on: March 19, 2020, 05:06:35 pm »
You really need to look at the closed cases where there has been an outcome ie you have either got better or died  :-\  that is currently running at about 10%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Offline Phmode

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #33 on: March 19, 2020, 10:17:53 pm »
That's based on global figures.

We need to consider things on a more local basis because our mitigation measures and capabilities are different from other regions.
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Offline richtea

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #34 on: March 20, 2020, 09:58:03 am »
Quote from: Phmode on March 19, 2020, 10:17:53 pm
That's based on global figures.

We need to consider things on a more local basis because our mitigation measures and capabilities are different from other regions.

Agreed. The NHS is much better than many other national health services (where they exist).
A 'higher risk' person getting infected in darkest Peru is going to have a pretty low survival chance. However, in lightest Peru, the hospitials are pretty good, as I've tested them.  :-X

Germany seem to have it's death v recovery rate in a good place, even with high infection rates:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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Offline Belco100

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #35 on: March 20, 2020, 10:35:14 am »
Germany - 115 Recovered and 44 Deaths - that's 28%  ::)  Hopefully the recovered rate will start to rise rapidly in the next couple of weeks. Still far too early to get good figures across most of Europe.

We are very similar to Italy for population size, age demographic and health service, so lets hope we do better than them ???
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Offline Belco100

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #36 on: March 20, 2020, 10:37:18 am »
Going to drop out of the figures on this one - as someone said, this is in the "Humour" section and the opening post was bloody funny!
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Offline Matt

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #37 on: March 20, 2020, 02:05:07 pm »
Speaking of rationing, I went into Blockbuster and asked to borrow Batman Forever.

They said sorry you have to bring it back in a few days.
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Offline richtea

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #38 on: March 20, 2020, 03:27:42 pm »
Like the Blockbuster reference - nice & pre-COVID.
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Offline Phmode

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #39 on: March 20, 2020, 07:21:41 pm »
A mate of mine assures me that ALL of the following are absolutely guaranteed to prevent Covid-19 getting inside your system and/or prevent you going totally doolally.

DO only use 3rd and 6th gear - a mate of his did this for years and he never got Covid-19...

DO NOT ride at speeds between 40 and 70 except for the 2-3 seconds it takes to get from one to the other, most road users travel between these speeds and you DO want to self isolate after all...

DO NOT stop at traffic lights or Stop or Give Way signs, even if you would normally, you don't want to be parked up within spitting distance of other road users...if you do get your collar felt it means the arm of law is very long at well over 2 metres and just tell 'em I said it was OK...

DO ride to work within the above parameters every day (including weekends) even if you are forced to work from home, the journey will do you good and means you can stick to your usual routines...

DO ride without gloves and boots, the cold stops all viruses from living on your hands and feet: I never use my heated grips and I'm as fit as a trumpet...

DO let your tyre pressures down. Most off-road bikes run very low pressures with no problems and if you do get a puncture you probably won't notice it and can just carry on regardless...

DO NOT use that old wive's tale of rubbing a potato on the inside of your visor to stop it fogging up, it just doesn't work. However...

DO rub garlic cloves on the inside of your visor. It won't stop it fogging up either but I have it on good authority that viruses hate it, just like some folks I know...

DO put a bit of tank tape over your fuel guage, it prevents mileage anxiety and you don't want to be nipping into the local filling station and mixing with all those eejits buying loo rolls...

DO feel free to fill up at places that normally require you to take your helmet off, just cough a lot and offer to open it when you go in to pay...

DO NOT rely on positive cambers on your normal riding routes as in line with government policy, local authority workers are doing their best to flatten the curve and in a similar vein...

DO feel free to park on almost any available pavement as some dyslexic local authority workers are doing their best to flatten the kerb...

My mate can guarantee that these measures will keep you alive for many years to come and with his permission, please feel free to send them to one and all, let's make it go viral  :)
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Andym535

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #40 on: March 21, 2020, 02:02:38 pm »
I came across this while trying to find something to explain to someone why they really should stay at home.  Graphics are a bit crude, but interesting none the less.

http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SpreadofDisease/

Change the parameters and you get some more interesting outcomes.
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Offline Phmode

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #41 on: March 21, 2020, 06:20:47 pm »
...and they understood after watching that?

Blimey, I got bored (even with nothing better to do) after about two minutes and still didn't understand anything it was saying apart from I'm glad Pacman got overtaken by technology.

The reason folks should distance themselves or self-isolate is so that they don't die or kill their mothers or grandmothers! If they don't understand that then they are of little use to society...
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Offline richtea

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #42 on: March 21, 2020, 07:18:45 pm »
Try these Brian:

- Grid: Medium
- Speed: Max
- Start simulation.
- open the Population graph, and watch.

Give it a while to settle (20-30s, say) and then switch to:
- Grid: Large (I consider that social distancing, but I could be wrong. And it is just a sim.)

Unpause, and watch the infections (usually) decrease.

There are a host of params you can adjust if you want to play.

I'd be proud of that demo if it was mine.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 08:41:25 pm by richtea »
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Offline Matt

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #43 on: March 21, 2020, 07:39:41 pm »
Aha! I had a brief look at it and it very much reminds me of a game that was on, I think, Windows 3.1. Except it was foxes and rabbits or something like that. You'd set parameters then click play and either try and get a balance or... well, it was a basic sim.
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Andym535

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Re: Latest supermarket rationing limits
« Reply #44 on: March 22, 2020, 10:19:08 am »
Quote from: Phmode on March 21, 2020, 06:20:47 pm
...and they understood after watching that?

Blimey, I got bored (even with nothing better to do) after about two minutes and still didn't understand anything it was saying apart from I'm glad Pacman got overtaken by technology.

The reason folks should distance themselves or self-isolate is so that they don't die or kill their mothers or grandmothers! If they don't understand that then they are of little use to society...

The point they were making was along the lines of 'What's the point, the virus will still be there when we come out'. I was trying to find something that shows that the virus has to spread to another victim before the current one either dies or recovers, so reducing the spread is what makes the virus die out. One of the interesting things that this shows is that it's easy to get into a cyclical pattern (turn the graph on) where it nearly dies out then peaks again and again. With doctors and healthcare staff dying from this already, sadly I think we will end up losing some of out best saving some of the most stupid.
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