Latest supermarket rationing limits

[Phmode]

Being on a septic tank I have to think twice about even peeing in the loo...

[raesewell]

I like to observation going around on Facebook, the recommendation is to sneeze into your elbow and people are bulk buying toilet rolls which proves they really don't know their arse from their elbow.

[Phmode]

Day Infections Date Deaths (at the current global rate of 4% of infections)
1   1,391   16-Mar.   55
2   1,669   17-Mar
3   2,003   18-Mar
4   2,404   19-Mar
5   2,884   20-Mar.   115
6   3,461   21-Mar
7   4,154   22-Mar
8   4,984   23-Mar
9   5,981   24-Mar
10   7,177   25-Mar.  287
11   8,613   26-Mar
12   10,335   27-Mar
13   12,402   28-Mar
14   14,883   29-Mar
------- growth should start to level off here, but if not....
15   17,859   30-Mar.  714
16   21,431   31-Mar
17   25,717   01-Apr
18   30,861   02-Apr
19   37,033   03-Apr
20   44,440   04-Apr.  1,777
21   53,328   05-Apr
22   63,993   06-Apr
23   76,792   07-Apr
24   92,150   08-Apr
25   110,580   09-Apr.  4,423
26   132,696   10-Apr
27   159,235   11-Apr
28   191,082   12-Apr
29   229,299   13-Apr
30   275,159   14-Apr.  11,006
31   330,190   15-Apr
32   396,229   16-Apr
33   475,474   17-Apr
34   570,569   18-Apr
35   684,683   19-Apr.  27,387
36   821,620   20-Apr
37   985,943   21-Apr
38   1,183,132   22-Apr
39   1,419,759   23-Apr
40   1,703,710   24-Apr.  68,148
41   2,044,452   25-Apr
42   2,453,343   26-Apr
43   2,944,011   27-Apr
44   3,532,813   28-Apr
45   4,239,376   29-Apr.  169,575
46   5,087,251   30-Apr
47   6,104,702   01-May.  244,188

[richtea]

I like to observation going around on Facebook, the recommendation is to sneeze into your elbow and people are bulk buying toilet rolls which proves they really don't know their arse from their elbow.

Excellent! 

[chriscanning]

Had a conversation today about what was going on in Spain you are allowed to walk your dog but only one person and proof that it’s your dog 

[richtea]

Had a conversation today about what was going on in Spain you are allowed to walk your dog but only one person and proof that it’s your dog 

"Hi mate, can I borrow your dog? I need to get out."

[richtea]

Day Infections Date Deaths (at the current global rate of 4% of infections)
1   1,391   16-Mar.   55
2   1,669   17-Mar
3   2,003   18-Mar
4   2,404   19-Mar
5   2,884   20-Mar.   115
6   3,461   21-Mar
7   4,154   22-Mar
8   4,984   23-Mar
9   5,981   24-Mar
10   7,177   25-Mar.  287
11   8,613   26-Mar
12   10,335   27-Mar
13   12,402   28-Mar
14   14,883   29-Mar
------- growth should start to level off here, but if not....
15   17,859   30-Mar.  714
etc...

Yup, looks about right, possibly just slightly pessimistic, since the UK is running at 2.7% deaths right now - better than the global average, but we are a 1st world country.
On the other hand my figures are not quite steep enough. (Whaat?!).  The infection rate is slightly higher than my guess of 1.2 (i.e. 20% extra each day).

Those deaths don't stop after 14 days - they just start easing off, so we're heading for low thousands, below 10k, I hope. The rest, and there will be more than that, will be spread through the year, and into next winter.

The government's big decision is to decide what is an acceptable rate of infection/death. That's driven by available beds versus business stress from lockdown.
In approx 14 days, they need to make a decision: do we stay locked down, or can we afford some controlled easing of movement. Otherwise businesses are going to go fully bust, not just a little bit bust. And god forbid what the suicide rate will be.

All very ugly.

Fingers crossed for all here, and your rellies.

[chriscanning]

Spoke to friends in Bordeaux today they are in complete lockdown you need paper work to go shopping so we still have a way to go.....

[Phmode]

With 104 UK deaths from 2,626 confirmed cases my calculator makes that 3.96%.

Of course, I might not know how to use it...

The other thing I missed from my doomsday preparations was to call my doctor and ask if they were offering the Pneumococcal vaccine. They were, confirmed I hadn't had it and I absolutely was entitled to it. It is recommended for those who get a free Flu jab and it helps to reduce the impact of pneumonia if you manage to survive that far...

Went to the doc's immediately only to be told by the nurse that I had it way back in 2013...

Waste of a trip but good to know I am partially protected. If you get a free flu jab, make enquiries of your surgery, it takes a while to build up the protection but it might just save your life.

[Matt]

Spoke to friends in Bordeaux today they are in complete lockdown you need paper work to go shopping so we still have a way to go.....

It's interesting to note how quickly and effectively (not sure on that yet) countries, or regimes, are able to close down free movement of people. Italy already had military on the streets of Rome since at least 2017 (when I last went). I don't think France has the same, but in any case, seems like it has been quite easy to move legislation for this case. How will that help or hinder in future situations is what i wonder in my cynic mind.

[richtea]

Lightening the mood a little (you forgot it was a joke thread, right - so did I, and I started it), today's best coronavirus joke:

 - If you survive do you get 4d back?

Who's going to explain it to Matt?

[Matt]

Bloody Charlemagne!

[richtea]

All, er, natural ingredients throughout.

[Matt]

Same can be said for my mercury tablets!

[Phmode]

I see your 80 and raise you 33